We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Wild, speculative theories born from the communications with AdjutantReflex.

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scapermoya
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Re: We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Unread post by scapermoya »

yeah, it is up to us to actually find the breadcrumbs they leave, but they clearly leave them at specific times. i think the margin of error should be fairly small, considering how many people are pouring over every new ad, image, etc. that bungie releases.

this is all assuming that they release the info based on a predetermined timeline rather than in reaction to us, the community. who's to say that they don't fudge the days a bit in either direction based on how fast/slow we find/figure out/use the clues? this is a marketing campaign after all, at least in part. they need the timing to be just right. maybe they have the psychology worked out pretty well, but i don't think its definite that they release stuff according to an exact schedule.
ii otnemem ii
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Re: We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Unread post by ii otnemem ii »

scapermoya wrote:yeah, it is up to us to actually find the breadcrumbs they leave, but they clearly leave them at specific times. i think the margin of error should be fairly small, considering how many people are pouring over every new ad, image, etc. that bungie releases.

this is all assuming that they release the info based on a predetermined timeline rather than in reaction to us, the community. who's to say that they don't fudge the days a bit in either direction based on how fast/slow we find/figure out/use the clues? this is a marketing campaign after all, at least in part. they need the timing to be just right. maybe they have the psychology worked out pretty well, but i don't think its definite that they release stuff according to an exact schedule.
Major events have got to be on a timeline... small events, like a new message recording, or cryptic poem posted by AR's Superior that gives us a new piece without giving us the entire answer. The final piece that allows us to all say, "Eureka!" though, is most definitely plotted out on a timeline. Otherwise, who is the puppetmaster of the ARG? Those who wrote it, or those playing it?

Yes, MS and Bungie are monitoring the progress in these/other forums -- that's why they are the best at Viral/ARG marketing. But if they gave us information everytime we were "ready" (according to whom?) for new info, we A) Would never get new info because some of the puzzles aren't "puzzles" until they are complete (a la FCC phone messages) or B) The ARG would be over. As is, we are at a standstill, unless there is something that we have all missed. But with how we attacked the ending of Episode 1/beginning of Episode 2 on July 10th, the chances that we have missed a tie-in and have enough info already to progress the game are slim to none.

There are 2 ways to interpret it (just cause it makes sense in code :geek: ):
When X = True, Y happens
X could be "someone posts 'Iris' in response to AR's question", making Y = "confirm and hibernate"
X could be "July 10th", making Y = "give them the next website, which will lead to a bunch of crazy shyte"
:arrow: My theory (and this thread) is that X = "the Moon is in line with the next Glyph spoke in relation to the Earth", making Y = "Commence ending of current Episode, begin new/next Episode"

So, yes, agreed, they have a little wiggle room on small things. But the plot progressive events are most definitely planned. Maybe not to the second, minute, or even hour... but definitely to the day. Or, night. Depending on where you live at the time the moon lines up.
ii otnemem ii
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Re: We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Unread post by ii otnemem ii »

I was un-blacklisted from B.net, and was able to post yet another extensive rebuttal in defense of the theory. Some good new evidence and research done, if I do say so myself...
http://www.bungie.net/fanclub/118020/Fo ... r1-p=2#end
Enjoi!
ii otnemem ii
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Re: We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Unread post by ii otnemem ii »

A new thread on B.net started up which discusses a more mathematical version of this theory. Once I started looking at the OPs numbers, it was apparent that they were slightly off. Once corrected, his calculations line up with my pictures and the world becomes a better place. Go check it out!

http://www.bungie.net/fanclub/118020/Fo ... s=true#end
scapermoya
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Re: We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Unread post by scapermoya »

i get access denied on that, ghostrider.
Last edited by scapermoya on Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
ii otnemem ii
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Re: We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Unread post by ii otnemem ii »

scapermoya wrote:i get access denned on that, ghostrider.
Ah... it's CompoundIntelligence's private forum, i think you have to be a member to get in. For those not on CI, here is the OP's post, and my reply:
II OtnemeM II wrote:
ksart wrote:...
The theory of the glyphs being some form of lunar calendar is a great idea. Although nothing seems to match up too well. I believe i may have stumbled across a solution if it has not already been thought of.
I call theis the Angle Theory.
After seeing D34th 4ngle 108, i thought there may be a connection to the angles on the glyphs. #1 i measure the angle between the open circled armature in starchart1 and the opencircled armature in starchart2, this gave me 72°, the complimentary angle of which is 108°.. Bit of an abstract connection. Except that the angles within a pentagon are all 108°, five points, and there is our glyph connection.

The Perfection Angle Theory: #2 (Assumes the glyphs are almost perfectly how they were meant to be)

#3 Measuring the rest of the angles, we come up with roughly (from top armature clockwise) 63°, 72°, 90°, 72°, 63°.
Image
Incase no one has noticed #4 server01 opened on the 20th of June, at 10:58 in Mombasa (11:24 in Washington) it became the 7th lunar day.
server02 opened on the 10th of July, the 21st day after the opening of sever01 (including the end dates).
relating to th glyphs,

moving CW:
288° = 21days
1° = 0.0729166666.... = 7/96 days = 1.75 hours
and hence the next server will open roughly 14.4375 days later so roughly July 24th

moving CCW:
72° = 21days
1° = 0.2916666.... = 7/24 days = 7 hours!
and hence the next server will open roughly 26.65 days later, so August 5th


Supposed Perfection Angle Theory: (Assuming the glyph was meant to be roughly equally divided)

Based on the 108° pentagon. this means;

moving CW:
288° = 21days
1° = 0.0729166666.... = 7/96 days = 1.75 hours
and hence the next server will open roughly 14.4375 days later so roughly July 24th

moving CCW:
72° = 21days
1° = 0.2916666.... = 7/24 days = 7 hours!
and hence the next server will open roughly 21 days later on, the 31st of July.

This is all rough, i realise that the first open ended circle armature from starchart01 does not line up exactly with the measured angles, except this is only about 1 degree off and only changes the result by 7 hours days. if this is correct tho... i wish i hadnt just told over 3000 people i now have to compete with
I really like your flow of thinking, because it is basically the mathematical version of mine, the Lunar Phase theory. But, there are a few corrections to your math and logic, that, if made, would make your theory work... and it would just so happen to be exactly the same as mine. I've bolded and numbered the points that need to be addressed:

1) This is pretty much the beginning of where your theory goes slightly astray in the numbers. 72 degrees is correct, and so is 108. The fact that you hand measured them, though, is where it is a problem. See further.

2) You say here that you are assuming that the glyphs are "almost perfectly as they are meant to be". This could be understood two ways: a) that you assume there is imperfection and that the imperfection is intentional, or b) that they are perfect, and any imperfection was unintended... due to the way you proceeded with the rest of your calculations, I have to assume that you meant the first interpretation, because you didn't use perfection in your angles, see next point.

3) In my counter-point 1, I point out that you used the 108 degree pentagon as your tie-in to the 72 degrees. If this is true, then your angles are off in part 3... your angles would draw an imperfect pentagon, and have no 108 degree angles in it. For you to have a perfect pentagon, all 5 interior angles have to be 72 degrees. The angles you use, by hand measuring, are throwing off the calculations just slightly. Let's clean those angles up to a perfect 72 degrees.

4) You are right that the first server opened on June 20th, but this is not the 7th lunar day, it was the 6th (the Moon was ~5.1 Lunar days old, making it the 6th day) Here are my sources:
http://home.att.net/~srschmitt/script_moon_phase.html
Download GraphDark (Free)
The 21st was the 7th Lunar day, but since the Server was opening at night (at least for me, in Portland, Oregon) it is up for debate as to which day it was when it opened, because we don't know the relative location (assuming there is one). For me, the first server was opened on June 20th, the 6th lunar day, but for N'Chala in Africa it was the 21st, the 7th Lunar day.
Then you cross your numbers by saying that the second server opened 21 days later -- you need to keep all your numbers in the same kind; you can't mix Earth days with Lunar days. The Moon was in fact in its 26th day, being ~25.1 Lunar days old on July 10th. So instead of 288 degrees being = 21 Earth days, you need to say that 288 degrees = ~20 Lunar days. But, this also is not correct, because the numbers don't jive as a whole. The average Lunar month is 29.53 days, divided by 5 spokes = 5.906, multiply by 4 (which is 288 degrees) = 23.624 Lunar days.
And hence the reason that I adjusted my theory from "When the Servers will unlock" to "When the Episodes will begin", syncing with Halo3.com's update. Making this adjustment, the numbers sync better with the glyphs, the Moon, and the rate of the game in the future. The beginning of Episode 1 was the "First seeds are scattered" email that went out (June 14th). That is when players actually had their lives entered by AR. His initial posts in forums were like the "Get ready, get set..." and the email was the "Go!" On this date, the Moon was at the 12 o'clock position, which is a logical starting point, it being a New Moon. 288 degrees later CCW, the Moon is 23.6 Lunar days older, and ~26 Earth days have passed, which is July 10th, the beginning of Episode 2, Server 2's unlocking. Now the numbers jive.

So, in keeping with said calculations, 288 degrees (23.6 Lunar days) from July 10th is August 2nd. From there, 23.6 Lunar days later is August 25, and from there follows Sept. 17th. We have to also allow for the TZ/Dateline difference, so these are all +/- 1 day.

With making these small changes to your calculations, swapping the "Server" for "Episode" and not mixing the data types, yours syncs with the events and my visualization of it. Thanks for starting the mathematical work on this! It is exactly what I needed as an impetus to do my own. Good work!!!!
Anyone have anything to add or correct?
t0rm3n7
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Re: We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Unread post by t0rm3n7 »

I actually understood that...

seems to be complete, ending on 9/17 will give us enough time to enjoy all the mind-blowing awesomeness bungie will have packed in Episode 5 (or what ever it's gonna be called...) before H3
scapermoya
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Re: We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Unread post by scapermoya »

and i thought i was done with math as of last semester.... give me a little time to write this down for myself, i'll get back to you.

edit: i dig it. the grand test will be server three. you need three data points to make sure the predictions are actually collinear. anyone can draw a line from A to B and have 100% correlation. if the third one lines up as well, you cracked it.

now we wait.
ii otnemem ii
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Re: We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Unread post by ii otnemem ii »

scapermoya wrote:and i thought i was done with math as of last semester.... give me a little time to write this down for myself, i'll get back to you.

edit: i dig it. the grand test will be server three. you need three data points to make sure the predictions are actually collinear. anyone can draw a line from A to B and have 100% correlation. if the third one lines up as well, you cracked it.

now we wait.
Here's another good post at B.net... shows the pattern of uses of calendars in the game, from the very beginning, right under our noses. See last post here:
http://www.bungie.net/fanclub/118020/Fo ... eater1-p=3
Agent ME
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Re: We can predict when the Servers are going to Open!

Unread post by Agent ME »

ii otnemem ii wrote:
scapermoya wrote:and i thought i was done with math as of last semester.... give me a little time to write this down for myself, i'll get back to you.

edit: i dig it. the grand test will be server three. you need three data points to make sure the predictions are actually collinear. anyone can draw a line from A to B and have 100% correlation. if the third one lines up as well, you cracked it.

now we wait.
Here's another good post at B.net... shows the pattern of uses of calendars in the game, from the very beginning, right under our noses. See last post here:
http://www.bungie.net/fanclub/118020/Fo ... eater1-p=3
That link tells me "Access Denied". Can you mirror that page somewhere?
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